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Instacart·Data Scientist·Take-home Assignment·Senior

SeniorPrefer not to say
Jun 2026Remote

Summary

Instacart data science case that went deep fast. The whole thing was one big open-ended prompt that tied SQL output into budget strategy, experiment design, and segmentation analysis. More like a consulting case than a typical DS interview.

Questions Asked (3)

Q1

Using findings from a SQL analysis on advertiser spend and program profitability, propose a concrete budget allocation for next quarter that maximizes net profit while managing risk. Your answer should cover recommended program-level budget shares, advertiser-level allocation rules, and a back-of-the-envelope incremental profit estimate with stated assumptions.

Pricing & MonetizationProduct Analytics & MetricsProduct Strategy
Author's notes

This part took me way longer than I expected.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Start by summarizing the key findings from your SQL analysis, focusing on program profitability and advertiser spend efficiency. Then propose a budget allocation that shifts spend toward high-ROI programs and advertisers, while setting aside a portion for testing to manage risk. Finally, provide a back-of-the-envelope incremental profit estimate with clear assumptions.

Pro tip: Quantify the trade-off between expected profit and risk by using a simple metric like profit per dollar spent, and suggest a phased rollout to validate assumptions before full commitment.

1. Summarize key findings

Briefly state the most important insights from your SQL analysis, such as which programs and advertisers have the highest net profit margins and which have diminishing returns.

2. Recommend program-level budget shares

Propose specific percentage allocations for each program based on their historical ROI and strategic importance, ensuring diversification to mitigate risk.

3. Define advertiser-level allocation rules

Outline rules for allocating budget within programs, such as prioritizing advertisers with high incremental profit per dollar or capping spend for those with saturation.

4. Estimate incremental profit

Provide a back-of-the-envelope calculation of expected incremental profit from the proposed allocation, stating assumptions like constant marginal ROI or linear scaling.

5. Address risk management

Explain how the allocation manages risk, e.g., by limiting exposure to any single program or advertiser, and including a test budget for exploration.

Key Points to Mention

  • Use of SQL analysis to identify high-ROI programs and advertisers
  • Program-level budget shares based on profitability and strategic fit
  • Advertiser-level rules such as ROI thresholds or spend caps
  • Incremental profit estimate with assumptions (e.g., marginal ROI, no cannibalization)
  • Risk mitigation through diversification and phased testing
  • Clear communication of assumptions and potential sensitivity

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.

Q2

Design an experiment to validate the proposed budget allocation strategy. Specify your randomization unit, power and sample size considerations, primary KPI, and guardrails. Define what success looks like and how you would make a go/no-go decision.

A/B Testing & ExperimentationProduct Analytics & Metrics
Author's notes

I went with a geo holdout over the randomized advertiser split because advertiser-level randomization felt too noisy given how skewed spend tends to be.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Start by clarifying the budget allocation strategy and the business context (e.g., marketing spend, incentives). Then design a randomized controlled experiment with a clear unit of randomization (e.g., user or region), justify sample size via power analysis, define a primary KPI tied to the strategy's goal, and establish guardrail metrics. Finally, specify success criteria and a go/no-go decision framework based on statistical and practical significance.

Pro tip: Consider potential interference between units (e.g., budget shifts affecting multiple users) and propose mitigation like cluster randomization or switchback tests. Also, pre-register your analysis plan to avoid p-hacking and ensure stakeholder alignment on decision criteria.

1. Clarify Objective and Hypotheses

Understand the proposed budget allocation strategy, its intended impact, and formulate a testable hypothesis (e.g., new allocation increases incremental profit). Identify the population and constraints.

2. Choose Randomization Unit and Design

Select the unit of randomization (e.g., user, region, or time-based switchback) based on interference risks and operational feasibility. Ensure randomization is unbiased and groups are comparable.

3. Determine Power and Sample Size

Conduct power analysis using expected effect size, variance, significance level (α=0.05), and desired power (80%). Account for multiple testing if needed and estimate required sample size and duration.

4. Define Metrics and Guardrails

Select a primary KPI (e.g., incremental revenue per user) aligned with the strategy's goal. Add guardrail metrics (e.g., customer satisfaction, long-term retention) to detect unintended harm.

5. Set Success Criteria and Decision Rule

Predefine what success looks like: statistically significant improvement in primary KPI without degrading guardrails. Specify go/no-go thresholds (e.g., p<0.05 and lift > X%) and consider practical significance.

Key Points to Mention

  • Randomization unit: user-level vs. cluster (e.g., region) to avoid interference; consider switchback for time-based budget shifts.
  • Power analysis: calculate sample size based on minimum detectable effect (MDE), variance, and desired power; account for multiple comparisons.
  • Primary KPI: choose a metric directly tied to budget allocation goal (e.g., incremental profit, ROI, conversion rate).
  • Guardrail metrics: monitor for negative impacts on user experience, retention, or other business metrics.
  • Success definition: combine statistical significance (p-value) with practical significance (effect size) and business impact.
  • Go/no-go decision: predefine decision criteria, consider sequential testing or Bayesian methods for early stopping, and involve stakeholders.

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.

Q3

Walk through your analysis plan: what segmentations would you run, how would you handle seasonality and regression to the mean, what additional data would you request, and what confounders are you worried about and how would you address them?

A/B Testing & ExperimentationProduct Analytics & MetricsRoot Cause Analysis
Author's notes

Segmentation by advertiser size and new vs.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Start by clarifying the experiment's goal and metrics, then outline a structured analysis plan that covers segmentation, seasonality adjustments, regression to the mean, additional data needs, and confounder mitigation. Emphasize a rigorous, step-by-step approach that balances statistical validity with practical business insights.

Pro tip: Always pre-specify your analysis plan and segmentations before looking at the data to avoid p-hacking and ensure your findings are credible. Additionally, consider using holdout groups or pre-period data to validate your adjustments for seasonality and regression to the mean.

1. Clarify Objectives and Metrics

Confirm the experiment's primary and secondary metrics, the hypothesis, and the expected effect size. This ensures your analysis aligns with business goals and statistical power.

2. Plan Segmentations

Identify key segments such as user demographics, behavior, platform, and geography. Predefine these segments to avoid data dredging and to uncover heterogeneous treatment effects.

3. Address Seasonality and Regression to the Mean

Use historical data to model seasonal patterns and adjust for them. For regression to the mean, consider using difference-in-differences, propensity score matching, or including pre-period covariates.

4. Request Additional Data

Ask for data on user attributes, exposure, and external factors like promotions or holidays. This helps control for confounders and enrich your analysis.

5. Identify and Mitigate Confounders

List potential confounders such as selection bias, novelty effects, and external events. Address them through randomization checks, stratification, or sensitivity analyses.

Key Points to Mention

  • Pre-registration of analysis plan to maintain statistical integrity
  • Use of CUPED or other variance reduction techniques to control for pre-period differences
  • Segmentation by user tenure, order frequency, and device type to detect heterogeneous effects
  • Seasonality adjustment using time-series decomposition or including time fixed effects
  • Regression to the mean mitigation via control groups and pre-post comparisons
  • Confounder control through randomization checks, stratification, and sensitivity analysis

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.