I went straight to the supply side first which was probably backwards.
Start by clarifying the goal and scope, then structure your answer by breaking down the population into current users, potential new users, and those who might increase consumption. Use a simple model to estimate the change, and discuss key assumptions and data sources, while acknowledging uncertainties.
Pro tip: Show that you can reason with imperfect data by stating your assumptions explicitly and suggesting how you would validate them with A/B tests or natural experiments. This demonstrates both analytical rigor and adaptability.
Ask clarifying questions to understand what 'impact on consumption' means (e.g., total volume, frequency, new users) and the time frame. Confirm whether we're estimating short-term or long-term effects.
Divide the US population into relevant groups: current users, likely new users (e.g., those in states where it's illegal but would try if legal), and infrequent users who might increase usage. Consider demographics and attitudes.
Use existing data from states that have legalized (e.g., Colorado, Washington) to estimate consumption changes. Apply these rates to the national population, adjusting for differences.
Build a simple model: New consumption = (current users * change in frequency) + (new users * average consumption). Quantify ranges based on assumptions.
Acknowledge data gaps and suggest ways to validate estimates (e.g., surveys, sales data). Discuss potential factors like price, availability, and social norms.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.