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This one's straightforward if you actually remember what independence means.
State the independence assumption clearly, then apply the definition of independence to conclude that the first toss does not affect the second. Since the coin is fair, the probability remains 1/2. Avoid overcomplicating; the key is recognizing that independence makes the conditional probability equal to the unconditional probability.
Pro tip: Mention that this is a classic trick question testing understanding of independence versus conditional probability. Explicitly note that if the events were not independent, the answer would differ, showing you grasp the underlying concept.
Restate that there are two fair coin tosses, they are independent, and we are given that the first toss is Tails.
Independence means P(A|B) = P(A). So the outcome of the first toss does not influence the second.
Since the second toss is fair, P(Second = Heads) = 1/2, regardless of the first toss.
Conclude that the probability is 1/2, and briefly explain why the condition does not change it.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.
This is the one that gets people and yeah it got me a little.
Define the sample space for two fair coin tosses, then condition on the event that at least one toss is Heads. Enumerate the equally likely outcomes satisfying the condition and compute the probability of both being Heads as the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes in the conditioned space.
Pro tip: Explicitly state the assumption that the coin is fair and tosses are independent, and clarify that 'at least one is Heads' is given information, not a random event. This avoids ambiguity and shows attention to detail.
List all possible outcomes of two fair coin tosses: HH, HT, TH, TT. Each has probability 1/4.
The condition is 'at least one toss is Heads'. This eliminates the TT outcome, leaving HH, HT, TH.
Since the remaining outcomes are equally likely, the probability of HH given at least one H is 1/3.
Articulate that conditioning restricts the sample space and that the probability is the ratio of the favorable outcome (HH) to the size of the restricted space (3).
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.