I started with the funnel mapping which felt right, but I got a bit tangled when they pushed on how to separate the pop-up effect from seasonality and partner mix shifts.
Start by confirming causality through a quasi-experimental design like difference-in-differences or synthetic control, comparing partner-referral channels to unaffected channels before and after the pop-up launch. Then quantify the trade-off by estimating incremental app installs and the lost orders, converting both to a common metric like profit or LTV. Finally, design an A/B test with variants (keep, modify, remove) to measure net impact and decide based on statistical significance and business thresholds.
Pro tip: Always consider potential confounders like seasonality or concurrent marketing campaigns, and use a holdout group if possible to isolate the pop-up's effect. Also, think about long-term effects: the pop-up might deter high-value users, so measure impact on retention and LTV, not just immediate orders.
Use a difference-in-differences or synthetic control approach comparing partner-referral channels to other channels before and after the pop-up launch. Check for parallel trends and rule out alternative explanations like seasonality or other simultaneous changes.
Estimate the number of incremental app installs attributable to the pop-up and the number of lost first-time purchases from the partner-referral channel. Convert both to a common metric such as expected profit or LTV to compare.
Run an A/B test with three arms: keep pop-up, modify pop-up (e.g., different messaging or timing), and remove pop-up. Randomize at user level, ensure sufficient power, and measure both installs and purchases as primary metrics.
Analyze the experiment results using appropriate statistical tests, considering both short-term and long-term metrics. Decide whether to keep, modify, or remove the pop-up based on net impact and business goals.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.