Gusto·Product Manager·Onsite - Product Sense / Strategy·Senior

SeniorPrefer not to say

Apr 2026

Summary

Gusto PM interview with a market sizing question about Google's Project Loon. Pretty niche topic for a payroll company but here we are.

Questions Asked (1)

Estimate the total market value of Google's Project Loon, the initiative that used IoT devices to bring internet connectivity to rural and remote regions.

Product StrategyProduct Analytics & MetricsAdaptability & Ambiguity

Author's notes

Wasn't expecting a market sizing question about a defunct Google moonshot at a company that does payroll software.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Start by clarifying the objective: are we valuing Loon as a standalone business, its strategic value to Google, or its social impact? Then break the problem into addressable market size (rural unconnected population) and potential revenue per user, adjusting for feasibility and competition. Finally, triangulate with cost-based or strategic value approaches to sanity-check the estimate.

Pro tip: Acknowledge that Loon was shut down in 2021, so the valuation should reflect a hypothetical or retrospective lens—this shows you're informed and can handle ambiguity. Also, anchor your estimate to a relatable metric like 'cost per connected person' to make the number tangible.

1. Clarify the valuation context

Ask whether we're valuing Loon as a standalone revenue-generating business, its strategic option value to Google, or its social impact. This determines whether to use market-based, cost-based, or strategic valuation methods.

2. Estimate the addressable market

Calculate the number of people in rural/remote areas without internet access (e.g., ~3 billion globally, but Loon targeted a subset). Consider factors like population density, affordability, and regulatory barriers to narrow the target.

3. Determine potential revenue per user

Estimate ARPU based on comparable markets (e.g., emerging market mobile data pricing) and Loon's cost structure. Multiply by the target user base to get a revenue ceiling, then apply a realistic penetration rate.

4. Apply a valuation multiple or cost-based approach

Use a revenue multiple (e.g., 5-10x for telecom) or estimate the cost to build equivalent infrastructure. Alternatively, value the strategic option (e.g., data, ecosystem lock-in) if standalone revenue is low.

5. Sanity-check and triangulate

Compare your estimate with known figures (e.g., Google's investment in Loon, similar projects like Facebook's Aquila) and adjust for risks like technology failure, regulation, and competition.

Key Points to Mention

Loon's target market: rural and remote areas with no or poor internet connectivity, often in developing countries.
Revenue model: potential partnerships with telecom operators, governments, or direct-to-consumer, but likely low ARPU due to affordability.
Cost structure: high upfront R&D and balloon manufacturing, but lower ongoing costs than terrestrial infrastructure.
Strategic value to Google: expanding user base, data collection, and promoting Google services, which may justify a higher valuation than standalone revenue.
Comparable valuations: Facebook's Aquila, SpaceX Starlink, and telecom infrastructure projects.
Risk factors: regulatory hurdles, technological challenges, and competition from satellite internet, which led to Loon's shutdown.

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.