I started with NYC population and tried to segment by household type, which felt reasonable, but I got tangled up trying to figure out what percentage of grocery shopping actually happens online versus in-store for produce specifically.
Break down the problem into population, consumption, and online penetration. Estimate NYC population, average daily fruit/vegetable consumption per person, average price per unit, and the percentage of those purchases made online. Multiply to get annual online sales.
Pro tip: State your assumptions clearly and round numbers for easy calculation; the interviewer cares more about your structured thinking than the exact number. Also, consider segmenting by demographics or purchase frequency to show depth.
Confirm what 'fruits and vegetables' includes (fresh, frozen, canned?) and whether 'online sales' means groceries delivered or any online purchase. State that you'll assume fresh produce for simplicity.
Start with NYC population (~8.5 million). Estimate average daily consumption of fruits and vegetables per person (e.g., 2 servings per day). Convert to annual consumption.
Assume an average price per serving (e.g., $1.00) based on typical grocery costs. Multiply by annual servings to get total market size.
Estimate the percentage of total produce purchases made online (e.g., 10-15% for groceries, but maybe lower for fresh produce). Apply this to the total market size.
Multiply the numbers to get the annual online sales figure. Sanity-check by comparing to known benchmarks (e.g., total US online grocery sales) and adjust if needed.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.