Acknowledge the self-selection bias and propose a quasi-experimental design like propensity score matching or weighting to create comparable groups. Outline the steps: define treatment/control, choose covariates, estimate propensity scores, balance check, and estimate treatment effect. Emphasize validation through sensitivity analysis and falsification tests.
Pro tip: Use negative control outcomes (e.g., metrics that shouldn't be affected) to check for hidden biases, and consider instrumental variables if a natural experiment exists (e.g., random rollout of the opt-in prompt).
Treatment group: users who opted into the redesign. Control group: users who did not opt in but are similar in observable characteristics. Consider using a subset of non-opters who were eligible but didn't opt in.
Include past engagement metrics (e.g., sessions, clicks), demographics, tenure, device type, and behavioral features like feature usage patterns. Also consider time-varying factors and pre-treatment outcomes.
Fit a model (e.g., logistic regression) to predict probability of opting in. Use matching (nearest neighbor, caliper) or weighting (inverse probability weighting) to balance covariates. Check balance using standardized mean differences.
Use the matched/weighted sample to estimate treatment effect on outcomes (e.g., engagement, retention). Validate assumptions: no unmeasured confounding (sensitivity analysis), positivity, and SUTVA. Conduct falsification tests with negative control outcomes.
Report effect sizes with confidence intervals, discuss limitations (e.g., unobserved confounders), and suggest next steps like randomized experiments if feasible.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.