This one sprawled in ways I didn't anticipate.
Start by validating the metric and ruling out measurement artifacts, then systematically decompose the 10% drop across supply, demand, merchant, product, external, and measurement dimensions using quantitative methods like funnel analysis and cohort segmentation. For each hypothesis, outline a test (e.g., observational study, quasi-experiment) and prioritize based on potential impact and ease of validation, culminating in a causal inference approach when A/B testing isn't feasible.
Pro tip: Always begin by confirming the drop is real and not a data pipeline issue; then use a 'peel the onion' approach—segment by geography, time, user type, and device to localize the problem before diving into causes.
Verify the 10% drop is accurate by checking data quality, logging, and metric definitions. Segment the decline by time, geography (e.g., neighborhoods), platform, and user cohorts to identify where the drop is concentrated.
Break down the delivery funnel (app open → search → add to cart → checkout → delivery) and compare conversion rates week-over-week to pinpoint which stage(s) drive the decline. Quantify the contribution of each stage to the overall drop.
List potential root causes across supply (e.g., Dasher availability), demand (e.g., user churn), merchant (e.g., closures), product (e.g., bug), external (e.g., weather), and measurement (e.g., tracking). For each, design a test: compare affected vs. unaffected segments, use time-series analysis, or leverage natural experiments.
Use decomposition methods (e.g., additive or multiplicative models) to estimate how much each factor contributes to the 10% drop. Prioritize drivers by impact and validate with sensitivity analysis.
If randomization is infeasible, use quasi-experimental methods like difference-in-differences, synthetic control, or instrumental variables to establish causality. Ensure assumptions are met and triangulate with qualitative insights.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.