This looked like a clean textbook question until I actually started answering it.
Start by framing the business goal and defining clear, testable hypotheses for the discount's impact on conversion and profit. Then systematically walk through the experiment design, including metric selection, sample size calculation, randomization, and analysis plan, emphasizing trade-offs and potential pitfalls. Conclude with how you would interpret results, considering statistical significance, practical significance, and business implications.
Pro tip: Always tie metrics back to the company's north star (e.g., long-term profitability) and mention guardrail metrics to catch unintended consequences like margin erosion or cannibalization. Show you understand that a statistically significant lift in conversion might not be worth it if it hurts profit.
State the null and alternative hypotheses (e.g., H0: discount does not affect conversion; H1: discount increases conversion). Choose primary metric (conversion rate) and secondary/guardrail metrics (average order value, profit margin, return rate, customer lifetime value).
Calculate required sample size using power analysis (e.g., 80% power, 5% significance) based on minimum detectable effect (MDE) that is practically significant. Estimate daily traffic to determine test duration, ensuring it covers full business cycles (e.g., weekdays/weekends).
Randomly assign users to control (no discount) and treatment (10% discount) groups, ensuring proper randomization and avoiding contamination. Consider stratification by key covariates (e.g., geography, user tenure) and decide on triggering event (e.g., on product page view).
After data collection, check for sample ratio mismatch (SRM) and validity. Compute lift in primary metric with confidence intervals and p-values. Perform subgroup analyses and check guardrail metrics for unintended effects.
Assess statistical and practical significance: is the lift in conversion worth the discount's impact on profit? Consider long-term effects and potential cannibalization. Provide a clear recommendation (launch, iterate, or abandon) with caveats.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.