Choose a primary metric that directly measures the button's purpose, such as 'home-screen CTA click-through to conversion' or 'successful task completion rate', and rigorously define its numerator, denominator, unit of analysis, inclusion/exclusion rules, exposure, attribution window, and time horizon. Defend why this metric is more sensitive and business-aligned than CTR or raw revenue, then outline guardrail metrics with breach thresholds, and address novelty effects, returning-user contamination, and sample size/MDE for a 48-hour ship decision.
Pro tip: Emphasize that the primary metric must be a 'success metric' tied to the button's intended action, not just engagement; and propose a sequential testing or always-valid inference approach to handle peeking within the 48-hour window.
Pick a metric like 'home-screen CTA conversion rate' and specify numerator (users who complete the desired action after clicking the CTA), denominator (users exposed to the home screen with the CTA), unit of analysis (user-level), inclusion/exclusion (new users, exclude bots/internal), exposure (first home-screen view), attribution window (e.g., 24 hours), and time horizon (48 hours).
Explain that CTR only measures clicks, not downstream value, and raw revenue is noisy and influenced by outliers; the chosen metric captures the button's direct impact on a key business outcome and is more sensitive to color changes because it focuses on the immediate action the button is designed to drive.
List guardrails such as overall revenue per user (breach if drop >2%), session duration (breach if drop >5%), and support tickets (breach if increase >10%); set explicit thresholds based on historical variability and business impact.
For the first 48 hours, analyze new users separately to avoid novelty, use a holdback group for returning users, and consider a washout period; if contamination is detected, re-randomize or extend the test.
Calculate required sample size based on baseline conversion rate, desired power (80%), significance (5%), and a minimum detectable effect (e.g., 2% relative lift); if traffic is insufficient, propose a sequential test or extend the window.
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