I jumped straight into TAM math and kind of forgot to ask any clarifying questions first, which I think hurt me.
Start by clarifying the goal of the initial production run (e.g., learning vs. profit) and the target market. Then, estimate demand using a bottom-up approach, factoring in market size, competition, and production constraints. Finally, recommend a quantity that balances risk and learning, and outline how you would iterate based on initial sales data.
Pro tip: Emphasize that the initial run is a learning opportunity: propose a small batch to test the market, gather data, and iterate, rather than aiming for perfect demand forecasting. This shows product sense and adaptability.
Ask clarifying questions to understand the goal of the initial run (e.g., test market, generate revenue, build brand) and key assumptions (target market, price point, distribution channels).
Use a bottom-up approach: estimate the total addressable market (TAM) for face masks, then narrow to a serviceable obtainable market (SOM) based on your target segment and go-to-market strategy.
Consider minimum order quantities (MOQs), lead times, costs, and cash flow limitations that may dictate the minimum or maximum production volume.
Balance demand estimates with production constraints to propose a specific quantity, such as a few thousand units, that minimizes risk while providing enough data to validate the market.
Outline how you will measure success (e.g., sell-through rate, customer feedback) and how you will adjust production for subsequent runs based on initial results.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.