Three days sounds like a lot until you realize how much they actually want.
Start by framing the problem as a data science pipeline: explore the ledger to understand trader behavior, engineer features that capture predictive signals, define a simple rule-based strategy, and rigorously backtest it with proper out-of-sample validation. Emphasize that the goal is not to find a perfect strategy but to demonstrate a sound, reproducible process that balances return with risk management.
Pro tip: Show that you think like a software engineer: propose a modular, testable pipeline and discuss how you would handle data quality issues, look-ahead bias, and transaction costs—these details signal production readiness.
Examine the ledger's structure, data quality, and basic statistics. Visualize trade volume, PnL distribution, and trader activity over time to identify patterns and anomalies.
Analyze trader behavior to find predictive signals, such as consistent profitability, contrarian vs. momentum trading, or clustering of trades. Use statistical tests or simple models to validate signals.
Formulate a clear, rule-based strategy that leverages the identified signals. Specify entry/exit conditions, position sizing, and risk controls in a way that is implementable and testable.
Split data into in-sample and out-of-sample periods. Backtest the strategy on out-of-sample data, computing return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown. Compare against a benchmark.
Articulate key assumptions (e.g., no market impact, perfect execution) and risks (e.g., overfitting, regime changes). Suggest ways to mitigate these risks.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.