I started by trying to break it down from daily consumption and work backward to imports, but I fumbled the math mid-answer and kind of lost the thread.
Break the problem into supply and demand components: first estimate total U.S. oil consumption, then estimate domestic production, and the difference approximates imports (adjusting for exports). Use round numbers and state assumptions clearly, focusing on logical structure rather than precise figures.
Pro tip: Acknowledge that the U.S. is both a major importer and exporter of oil, so net imports are what matter; mentioning this nuance shows you understand the complexity beyond a simple consumption-production gap.
Confirm whether the estimate is for crude oil only or all petroleum products, and whether net or gross imports. State that you'll estimate net imports of crude oil for simplicity.
Use population (~330M) and approximate per capita oil use. For example, assume ~2.5 gallons per person per day (including industrial use), convert to barrels (1 barrel = 42 gallons), yielding ~20 million barrels per day.
Recall that U.S. produces roughly 12-13 million barrels per day (from shale revolution). Use a round number like 12 million barrels per day.
Subtract production from consumption: 20M - 12M = 8M barrels per day net imports. Multiply by 365 to get annual net imports: ~2.9 billion barrels per year.
Verify with known facts: U.S. net imports are actually around 3-4 billion barrels per year historically, but recent years have seen lower net imports due to increased production and exports. Adjust if necessary and state final estimate.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.