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Upstart·Data Scientist·Technical Phone Screen·Senior

Senior
May 2026

Summary

Upstart data scientist interview that went pretty deep into probability theory and simulation, way more math-heavy than I expected for a DS role. The drunk passenger problem was the centerpiece and they wanted everything: closed-form proof, generalization, working code, and a complexity discussion.

Questions Asked (4)

Q1

There are 100 passengers and 100 seats. Passenger 1 picks a random seat. Each subsequent passenger sits in their assigned seat if it's free, otherwise picks randomly from what's left. Derive a closed-form expression for the probability that passenger 100 ends up in seat 100.

Algorithms & Data StructuresTechnical Trade-offs
Author's notes

The classic drunk passenger problem.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Start by reframing the problem: the only seats that matter are seat 1 and seat 100, and the process ends when either is taken. Use symmetry to argue that at each critical step, seat 1 and seat 100 are equally likely to be chosen, leading to a probability of 1/2. Then generalize to n passengers to show the probability is always 1/2, and derive the closed-form expression P(n) = 1/2.

Pro tip: Emphasize the symmetry argument clearly and concisely; it's the key insight that impresses interviewers. Also, mention that the result is independent of n, which is a surprising and elegant outcome.

1. Understand the process

Restate the problem to ensure clarity: Passenger 1 picks a random seat, and each subsequent passenger takes their assigned seat if available, otherwise picks randomly from remaining seats. Focus on the final outcome for passenger 100.

2. Identify critical seats

Recognize that the only seats that affect the final outcome are seat 1 and seat 100. Once either is occupied, the chain of random choices stops, and the remaining passengers (including passenger 100) will either get their own seat or not.

3. Apply symmetry argument

At each step where a random choice is made, the set of available seats includes seat 1 and seat 100 (unless one is already taken). By symmetry, seat 1 and seat 100 are equally likely to be chosen. Thus, the probability that seat 100 is taken before seat 1 is 1/2.

4. Derive closed-form expression

For n passengers and n seats, the probability that passenger n gets seat n is 1/2. So the closed-form expression is P(n) = 1/2 for all n ≥ 2. For n=100, P(100) = 1/2.

5. Verify with small cases

Check n=2: Passenger 1 picks seat 1 or 2 with equal probability; if seat 1, passenger 2 gets seat 2; if seat 2, passenger 2 gets seat 1. So probability = 1/2. This confirms the pattern.

Key Points to Mention

  • The problem simplifies because only seats 1 and 100 matter; other seats are irrelevant to the final outcome.
  • Symmetry: at any random choice, seat 1 and seat 100 are equally likely to be selected.
  • The probability is independent of the number of passengers (n), always 1/2.
  • Closed-form expression: P(n) = 1/2 for n ≥ 2.
  • The process terminates when either seat 1 or seat 100 is taken, and the outcome is determined at that point.
  • This is a classic probability puzzle that demonstrates the power of symmetry and reduction.

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.

Q2

Generalize your result to n passengers and n seats (n >= 2) and give a brief proof, either by induction or by identifying an invariant.

Algorithms & Data Structures
Author's notes

This went better because the invariant argument scales directly.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

First, clearly state the problem: n passengers board a plane with n seats, the first passenger picks a random seat, and each subsequent passenger takes their assigned seat if available, otherwise picks a random empty seat. The probability that the last passenger gets their own seat is 1/2. Then, provide a proof by induction or by identifying an invariant, such as focusing on the last passenger's seat and the first passenger's seat, and showing symmetry.

Pro tip: Emphasize the symmetry between the first passenger's seat and the last passenger's seat: the process ends when either is chosen, and by symmetry each is equally likely to be chosen first, giving probability 1/2. This elegant argument impresses interviewers.

1. Restate the problem

Clearly define the scenario for n passengers and n seats, ensuring the interviewer knows you understand the setup.

2. State the result

Claim that the probability is 1/2 for all n >= 2, and briefly mention that it is independent of n.

3. Choose a proof strategy

Select either induction or an invariant-based argument. For induction, establish the base case n=2 and then assume true for n-1 to prove for n. For invariant, focus on the set of seats that remain available and the symmetry between the first and last seats.

4. Execute the proof

If using induction: For n, consider the first passenger's choice. If they pick their own seat (prob 1/n), last gets their seat. If they pick the last seat (prob 1/n), last does not. If they pick seat k (2 <= k <= n-1), the problem reduces to a smaller instance with n-k+1 passengers, where the displaced passenger acts as the new 'first' passenger. By induction, probability is 1/2. Summing gives 1/2. If using invariant: Note that the process continues until either the first passenger's seat or the last passenger's seat is chosen. At each step, the probability of choosing either is equal, so by symmetry the last passenger's seat is chosen first with probability 1/2.

5. Conclude and verify

Summarize that the probability is 1/2, and optionally verify with small n (e.g., n=2, n=3) to build confidence.

Key Points to Mention

  • The probability is exactly 1/2 for all n >= 2.
  • Induction proof: base case n=2, and inductive step reduces to smaller n.
  • Invariant/symmetry argument: the first and last seats are symmetric; the process ends when either is chosen.
  • The first passenger's choice determines whether the problem reduces to a smaller instance.
  • The result is independent of n, which is surprising and elegant.
  • Clarify that 'last passenger' refers to the nth passenger to board.

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.

Q3

Write a Monte Carlo simulator in Python or R to estimate this probability for n=100 using at least 1 million trials. Report the estimate, standard error, and a 95% confidence interval, and confirm it matches theory within 0.01.

A/B Testing & ExperimentationAlgorithms & Data Structures
Author's notes

Coding under pressure is always fun.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

First, clarify the probability problem and its theoretical solution, then implement a vectorized Monte Carlo simulation in Python (using NumPy) with 1 million trials. Compute the estimate, standard error, and 95% confidence interval, and compare the estimate to the theoretical value to confirm it is within 0.01.

Pro tip: Use vectorized operations (e.g., NumPy) for speed and memory efficiency, and set a random seed for reproducibility. Also, explicitly state the theoretical probability and show the absolute difference to demonstrate rigor.

1. Clarify the problem and theory

Restate the probability problem to ensure understanding, and derive or state the theoretical probability. For example, if it's the probability of at least one match in a birthday problem with n=100, the theoretical value is approximately 0.9999997.

2. Design the simulation

Determine how to simulate one trial: generate random outcomes (e.g., birthdays) for n=100, and check if the event occurs. Plan to repeat this 1,000,000 times efficiently.

3. Implement in Python (or R)

Write vectorized code to run all trials at once. For example, in Python: generate a 2D array of random integers, compute the event for each row, and count successes. Use a fixed seed for reproducibility.

4. Compute statistics

Calculate the estimated probability (mean of successes), standard error (sqrt(p*(1-p)/N)), and 95% confidence interval (estimate ± 1.96*SE).

5. Validate against theory

Compare the estimate to the theoretical probability. Compute the absolute difference and confirm it is less than 0.01. Discuss any discrepancies and the role of Monte Carlo error.

Key Points to Mention

  • Theoretical probability and its derivation (e.g., complement rule for birthday problem).
  • Vectorization for efficiency in Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Standard error formula for a proportion: sqrt(p*(1-p)/N).
  • 95% confidence interval using normal approximation: p_hat ± 1.96*SE.
  • Setting a random seed for reproducibility.
  • The importance of checking that the estimate falls within 0.01 of the theoretical value, and interpreting the confidence interval.

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.

Q4

What are the time and space complexities of a naive simulation versus an optimized approach that only tracks the two boundary seats (seat 1 and seat n)?

Technical Trade-offsAlgorithms & Data Structures
Author's notes

Naive simulation is O(n) per trial in both time and space since you're maintaining and scanning a set of available seats.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Start by clearly defining the naive simulation: it likely iterates through all seats or all possible pairs, leading to O(n^2) time and O(n) space. Then describe the optimized approach: by only tracking the two boundary seats (seat 1 and seat n), we can compute the result in O(1) time and O(1) space, as the answer depends only on those two values. Conclude by discussing trade-offs and when each approach is appropriate.

Pro tip: Emphasize that the optimized approach works because the problem's constraints or objective function often depend only on the boundary seats, so tracking them suffices. This shows you can identify problem-specific structure to reduce complexity.

1. Define the naive simulation

Describe what the naive simulation does: e.g., iterating over all seats or all pairs of seats to compute the result. State its time and space complexities, typically O(n^2) time and O(n) space.

2. Explain the optimized approach

Explain that by only tracking the two boundary seats (seat 1 and seat n), we can compute the result directly. This reduces time complexity to O(1) and space complexity to O(1).

3. Justify the optimization

Explain why tracking only the boundary seats is sufficient: the problem's objective or constraints often depend only on these seats, so other seats do not affect the outcome.

4. Compare and contrast

Discuss the trade-offs: the naive approach is simpler to implement but inefficient for large n; the optimized approach is more efficient but requires insight into the problem structure.

5. Conclude with practical implications

Mention when each approach might be preferred, such as using naive for small n or for validation, and optimized for large-scale or real-time systems.

Key Points to Mention

  • Time complexity: naive O(n^2) vs optimized O(1)
  • Space complexity: naive O(n) vs optimized O(1)
  • The role of boundary seats in simplifying the problem
  • Trade-offs between simplicity and efficiency
  • Scalability considerations for large n
  • Potential edge cases (e.g., n=1 or n=2) and how they affect complexity

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.