I started from world population and tried to segment by travelers vs non-travelers, then layered in online booking penetration and Expedia's market share.
Use a top-down approach: start with global travel market size, estimate online penetration, then Expedia's market share to derive annual bookings. Alternatively, build from Expedia's known metrics like revenue and average booking value, but clearly state assumptions and validate with a second method.
Pro tip: Show product sense by segmenting bookings by product line (hotel, flight, car) and highlighting that hotels are Expedia's core, then tie the estimate to a metric like room nights, which is how Expedia actually reports performance.
Confirm whether 'hotel bookings' means room nights, reservations, or gross bookings, and whether it includes all Expedia Group brands (Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo, etc.). State that you'll estimate global annual hotel room nights.
Start with world population (~7.8B), estimate the percentage that travels and stays in hotels annually, and average hotel stays per traveler to get total global hotel room nights.
Apply an online booking penetration rate (e.g., 50-60%) to the global hotel room nights, then estimate Expedia's share of the online travel agency (OTA) market (e.g., 15-20%) to derive Expedia's bookings.
Validate the estimate using Expedia's known revenue (~$10B) and average booking value (~$300 per room night) to see if the numbers align, adjusting assumptions if needed.
Combine the assumptions into a final number (e.g., 300-400 million room nights annually) and clearly state the range and key uncertainties.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.