I started with sample-ratio mismatch, which felt like the obvious first move, and they nodded along.
Start by verifying the experiment's health: check for sample ratio mismatch (SRM) and ensure the randomization unit and analysis unit align. Then, if allocation is balanced, investigate other quality issues like novelty effects, instrumentation errors, or external factors before concluding the color caused the retention drop.
Pro tip: Always check for SRM first—it's the quickest way to catch allocation bugs. If SRM is present, the experiment is invalid, and you should avoid interpreting the metric change until fixed.
Compare the observed traffic split to the expected split using a chi-square test. If the p-value is significant (e.g., <0.001), there's likely an allocation bug, and the experiment results are unreliable.
Ensure the randomization unit (e.g., user ID) is correctly implemented and that users are consistently assigned to the same variant. Check for any leakage or cross-contamination between groups.
Look for missing data, logging errors, or metric definition changes during the experiment. Verify that retention is measured consistently across both groups and that no tracking bugs skew the results.
Break down retention by key dimensions (e.g., device, geography, user tenure) to see if the drop is concentrated in a subgroup. Also, check for concurrent experiments or external events that could confound results.
If no quality issues are found, consider the result valid and investigate the causal mechanism (e.g., color psychology). If issues exist, fix them and rerun the experiment.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.
This one tripped me up more than I expected.
Start by clarifying the causal question and the ideal experiment (randomized negative reviews), then discuss why it's infeasible and propose an observational causal inference method like difference-in-differences or instrumental variables. Outline the required data (panel data on merchants, reviews, and repurchases) and key assumptions for unbiasedness.
Pro tip: Emphasize that the key challenge is confounding by merchant quality and customer satisfaction; suggest using a natural experiment or a valid instrument (e.g., random assignment of reviews to moderators) to isolate causal effect.
Define treatment (receiving negative reviews) and outcome (coupon repurchase rate). Discuss the gold standard: randomized experiment where negative reviews are randomly assigned, and why it's often infeasible.
List necessary data: merchant-level panel data on coupon repurchases, review timestamps and sentiment, merchant characteristics, customer demographics, and potential instruments (e.g., reviewer assignment).
Propose methods like difference-in-differences (if staggered review shocks), instrumental variables (if a valid instrument exists), or synthetic control. Discuss assumptions and how to test them.
Explain how to control for time-varying confounders (e.g., merchant promotions, seasonality) and conduct sensitivity analyses (e.g., placebo tests, negative controls).
Check for heterogeneous effects (e.g., by merchant size), validate with falsification tests, and discuss limitations and practical implications for TikTok's coupon strategy.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.