This is one question but it's really like six questions stapled together.
Structure your answer as a coherent pipeline: start with target definition and its alignment to PnL, then detail loss function, feature standardization, and train/validation splits. Emphasize how each choice mitigates overfitting and ensures the model generalizes to live trading.
Pro tip: Show you understand that the ultimate metric is risk-adjusted PnL, not just predictive accuracy—discuss how you might incorporate transaction costs and slippage into the training objective or evaluation.
Specify the prediction target (e.g., forward returns over a horizon) and justify its economic rationale and alignment with PnL. Consider transformations like volatility scaling or ranking to improve stationarity.
Select a loss function that matches the target distribution and trading objective (e.g., MSE for returns, quantile loss for tail risk, or custom PnL-based loss). Discuss trade-offs between convexity, robustness, and differentiability.
Apply robust standardization (e.g., z-score using training set statistics) to handle outliers and non-stationarity. Mention techniques like winsorization or rank-based normalization for financial data.
Use time-series aware splits (e.g., walk-forward or purged K-fold with embargo) to prevent lookahead bias. Ensure validation set mimics production conditions and is used for hyperparameter tuning and early stopping.
Evaluate model performance using backtested PnL metrics (Sharpe, drawdown) and consider incorporating transaction costs into the loss or post-training calibration. Discuss potential mismatches and how to address them.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.