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Two Sigma·Data Scientist·Technical Phone Screen·Intermediate

Intermediate
Jun 2026

Summary

Two Sigma ML/data science interview with a bike-sharing demand forecasting problem. Pretty open-ended, which I wasn't fully prepared for.

Questions Asked (1)

Q1

How would you build a model to predict the number of bikes available at a Citibike station at any given time, accounting for things like historical usage, time of day, day of week, weather, and special events?

Data ModelingProduct Analytics & MetricsTechnical Trade-offs
Author's notes

I started okay, talked about framing it as a regression problem and leaned into time-series features pretty early.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Start by clarifying the problem scope and success metrics, then outline a structured approach covering data collection, feature engineering, model selection, and evaluation. Emphasize the time-series nature of the problem and the need to handle temporal dependencies and external factors.

Pro tip: Mention that you would build a baseline model first (e.g., historical average by station and hour) to set a performance benchmark, and then iterate with more complex models. This shows practical wisdom and a focus on incremental value.

1. Clarify the Problem and Define Success

Ask clarifying questions about prediction horizon, granularity (station-level, hourly/daily), and what 'available' means (bikes vs. docks). Define evaluation metrics like MAE, RMSE, or MAPE, and consider business impact.

2. Data Collection and Exploration

Identify and gather relevant data sources: historical bike availability, station metadata, weather data, event calendars, and temporal features. Explore data for patterns, seasonality, and anomalies.

3. Feature Engineering

Create features such as time of day, day of week, holidays, weather conditions (temperature, precipitation), lagged availability, rolling averages, and event indicators. Consider station-specific features like capacity and location.

4. Model Selection and Training

Choose appropriate models: start with simple baselines (e.g., historical average), then try time-series models (ARIMA, Prophet) and machine learning models (gradient boosting, random forest). Consider deep learning (LSTM) if data is large. Use time-based cross-validation.

5. Evaluation and Iteration

Evaluate models using hold-out test sets and appropriate metrics. Analyze errors by station, time, and conditions. Iterate on features and models, and consider deployment and monitoring aspects.

Key Points to Mention

  • Time-series cross-validation to respect temporal order and avoid leakage
  • Handling missing data and irregular time intervals
  • Incorporating external data like weather and events, and their potential delays
  • Station-level heterogeneity and the need for station-specific models or features
  • Baseline models for benchmarking and incremental improvement
  • Business considerations: prediction horizon, update frequency, and actionability

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.