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Instacart·Data Scientist·Take-home Assignment·Senior

Senior
Jul 2026

Summary

Take-home assignment for a DS role at Instacart centered entirely on one big A/B test case about a checkout change for same-day delivery. Dense, multi-part, and the kind of thing that looks manageable until you're three hours in and second-guessing your variance assumptions.

Questions Asked (4)

Q1

For each metric in the A/B test (conversion rate, AOV, take rate, delivery cost per order), which hypothesis test would you use and why? Walk through the distributional assumptions and how you'd validate them.

A/B Testing & ExperimentationProduct Analytics & Metrics
Author's notes

This is where I spent most of my time and probably overcomplicated it.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

For each metric, identify its distributional nature (binary, continuous, ratio) and select the appropriate hypothesis test (e.g., z-test for proportions, t-test for means, delta method for ratios). Then discuss how to validate assumptions (e.g., normality, independence, variance homogeneity) using diagnostic plots and tests, and consider alternatives like bootstrap or non-parametric tests if assumptions fail.

Pro tip: At Instacart, metrics like take rate and delivery cost per order are ratios of random variables, so the delta method or bootstrap is often needed; mentioning this shows depth beyond textbook tests.

1. Classify each metric

Determine the statistical nature of each metric: conversion rate is a proportion, AOV is a continuous mean, take rate is a ratio of two continuous variables, and delivery cost per order is a continuous mean (or ratio if aggregated).

2. Select hypothesis test

For conversion rate, use a two-proportion z-test; for AOV and delivery cost per order, use Welch's t-test (unequal variances); for take rate, use the delta method or bootstrap due to its ratio nature.

3. State distributional assumptions

For z-test: independent Bernoulli trials, large sample size for normal approximation. For t-test: independent samples, approximately normal sampling distribution (CLT), and for Welch's t-test, no equal variance assumption. For delta method: smooth function of asymptotically normal estimators.

4. Validate assumptions

Check sample sizes and expected counts for z-test; use QQ plots, histograms, and Shapiro-Wilk for normality; Levene's test for variance homogeneity; and consider bootstrap for ratio metrics to avoid distributional assumptions.

5. Consider practical adjustments

Mention multiple testing correction (e.g., Bonferroni) if testing multiple metrics, and discuss power analysis to ensure adequate sample size.

Key Points to Mention

  • Conversion rate: two-proportion z-test, assumptions of independence and large sample size.
  • AOV: Welch's t-test (unequal variances), normality via CLT or QQ plot.
  • Take rate: ratio metric, delta method or bootstrap, as it's a ratio of two random variables.
  • Delivery cost per order: continuous metric, t-test or bootstrap if skewed.
  • Assumption validation: QQ plots, Levene's test, bootstrap for non-normal data.
  • Multiple testing correction: Bonferroni or FDR when testing multiple metrics.

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.

Q2

Define contribution per order as GMV times take rate minus delivery cost. How would you model delivery cost scaling with order volume and take rate saturation at high discounts, and how do you propagate uncertainty through to a final decision?

A/B Testing & ExperimentationPricing & MonetizationProduct Analytics & Metrics
Author's notes

Genuinely tripped me up.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Start by decomposing contribution per order into its components (GMV, take rate, delivery cost) and then model each as a function of order volume and discount level. Use a hierarchical or simulation-based approach to capture nonlinearities like delivery cost economies of scale and take rate saturation, then propagate uncertainty via Monte Carlo to inform a decision rule (e.g., expected value with confidence intervals).

Pro tip: Emphasize that the decision should be based on the distribution of outcomes, not just point estimates—use probabilistic sensitivity analysis to identify which parameters most affect the decision, and consider the cost of being wrong (e.g., asymmetric loss).

1. Define and decompose the metric

Clearly state the contribution per order formula and identify each component: GMV, take rate, and delivery cost. Discuss how each might vary with order volume and discount level.

2. Model delivery cost scaling

Propose a functional form for delivery cost as a function of order volume (e.g., fixed + variable with economies of scale) and possibly take rate (if discounts affect basket size). Consider piecewise or nonlinear models.

3. Model take rate saturation

Explain how take rate might saturate at high discounts (e.g., logistic or diminishing returns). Incorporate behavioral assumptions or historical data to parameterize the saturation curve.

4. Propagate uncertainty

Use Monte Carlo simulation or Bayesian methods to combine parameter uncertainty from each component. Generate a distribution of contribution per order under different scenarios.

5. Translate to decision

Define a decision rule (e.g., maximize expected contribution, ensure probability of positive contribution > X%). Perform sensitivity analysis to identify key drivers and recommend actions.

Key Points to Mention

  • Nonlinear relationships: delivery cost economies of scale and take rate saturation require flexible models (e.g., splines, logistic functions).
  • Uncertainty sources: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and external factors (e.g., competition, seasonality).
  • Monte Carlo simulation for propagating uncertainty and generating outcome distributions.
  • Decision criteria: expected value, value at risk, or probability of achieving a threshold.
  • Sensitivity analysis to prioritize data collection or further experimentation.
  • Business context: Instacart's marketplace dynamics, delivery logistics, and discount strategies.

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.

Q3

Design a segmentation plan to detect heterogeneous treatment effects across dimensions like market, time of day, basket size, and new versus repeat users. How do you control for multiple comparisons while still surfacing segments that are actually useful?

A/B Testing & ExperimentationProduct Analytics & MetricsAdaptability & Ambiguity
Author's notes

I liked this one more than the stats questions.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Start by framing the segmentation as a pre-specified, hypothesis-driven analysis with a limited set of dimensions to avoid data dredging. Use a hierarchical testing strategy or false discovery rate control to manage multiple comparisons, then validate promising segments with a holdout set or follow-up experiment. Prioritize segments based on practical significance (effect size and business impact) rather than just statistical significance.

Pro tip: Pre-register your segmentation plan and primary dimensions before looking at the data; this prevents p-hacking and makes your findings more credible. Also, consider using a Bayesian approach with shrinkage to borrow strength across segments, which naturally controls for multiple comparisons and highlights truly heterogeneous effects.

1. Define dimensions and hypotheses

Select a limited set of theoretically motivated dimensions (e.g., market, time of day, basket size, user type) and specify expected directions of effect. Avoid creating too many segments by combining dimensions unless justified.

2. Choose a multiple comparison control method

Decide on a method such as Bonferroni, Holm, or Benjamini-Hochberg (FDR) based on the number of tests and tolerance for false positives. For exploratory analysis, FDR is often preferred to balance discovery and error control.

3. Analyze and adjust for multiple comparisons

Run the analysis for each segment, compute p-values, and apply the chosen adjustment. Also, report effect sizes and confidence intervals to assess practical significance.

4. Validate and prioritize segments

Use a holdout sample or a follow-up experiment to confirm findings. Prioritize segments with large, consistent effects and clear business implications, considering implementation costs.

5. Communicate and iterate

Present results with appropriate caveats about multiple testing. Recommend next steps, such as targeted experiments or deeper dives, and iterate the segmentation plan as more data becomes available.

Key Points to Mention

  • Pre-registration of segmentation plan to avoid p-hacking
  • False discovery rate (FDR) control for exploratory analysis
  • Hierarchical testing or gatekeeping procedures
  • Bayesian shrinkage or hierarchical models to borrow strength
  • Practical significance vs. statistical significance
  • Validation with holdout data or follow-up experiments

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.

Q4

Given the operational risk of manually scaling shopper supply, what optimization objective and constraints would you propose to balance short-term revenue lift against service-level metrics like cancellation rate?

Product StrategyPricing & MonetizationAdaptability & Ambiguity
Author's notes

Shortest answer I gave and probably the weakest.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Frame the problem as a constrained optimization where the objective is to maximize a blended metric (e.g., revenue minus penalties for cancellations) subject to hard service-level constraints. Propose a dynamic, data-driven approach that adapts to real-time conditions, and emphasize the need to validate the model through simulation and A/B testing before deployment.

Pro tip: Highlight the trade-off between short-term revenue and long-term customer trust: cancellations can erode lifetime value, so consider incorporating a penalty for cancellations that reflects their downstream impact. Also, mention that the optimization should be robust to uncertainty in demand and supply forecasts.

1. Define the objective function

Propose a composite objective that balances revenue lift and service-level metrics, such as revenue minus a penalty term for cancellations (e.g., λ * cancellation_rate). The penalty λ should be calibrated based on the business cost of cancellations.

2. Identify constraints

Specify hard constraints like maximum allowable cancellation rate (e.g., ≤ 5%) and minimum shopper utilization, as well as operational constraints like budget for incentives or maximum wait time.

3. Choose optimization method

Recommend a method suitable for dynamic, uncertain environments, such as stochastic programming, reinforcement learning, or a bandit approach, depending on data availability and latency requirements.

4. Validate and iterate

Outline a validation plan using historical data simulation and online A/B testing, with guardrail metrics to ensure service levels are not compromised. Emphasize continuous monitoring and retraining.

Key Points to Mention

  • Trade-off between revenue and cancellation rate: use a penalty parameter to balance them.
  • Hard constraints on service-level metrics (e.g., cancellation rate ≤ X%) to prevent degradation.
  • Dynamic optimization: adapt to real-time supply and demand fluctuations.
  • Use of historical data and simulation to calibrate the model and estimate parameters.
  • A/B testing with guardrail metrics to validate improvements without harming user experience.
  • Consideration of long-term customer lifetime value impact of cancellations.

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.