I started by trying to define 'medium-sized' and 'holiday season' before jumping in, which felt right in the moment.
Start by clarifying the scope: define 'medium-sized company' (e.g., 500 employees), 'holiday season' (e.g., late December), and 'productivity loss' (e.g., reduced output or increased idle time). Then build a bottom-up estimate by segmenting employees into roles, estimating absence and reduced efficiency, and calculating the total lost work hours.
Pro tip: Acknowledge that productivity loss isn't just about absence—it also includes reduced focus and 'presenteeism' (people working but less effectively). Quantify both to show depth.
Define the company size (e.g., 500 employees), holiday period (e.g., 2 weeks), and what 'productivity loss' means (e.g., lost output hours). State that you'll estimate based on typical patterns.
Break employees into categories: those who take full holiday (e.g., 30%), those who take partial leave (e.g., 40%), and those who work but with reduced efficiency (e.g., 30%). Consider roles like customer support, engineering, and sales.
For each segment, estimate average days off and efficiency reduction. For example, full holiday: 10 days off; partial: 5 days off; working: 20% efficiency loss due to distractions.
Multiply number of employees in each segment by lost hours (days off × 8 hours + efficiency loss × working hours). Sum to get total lost hours.
Divide total lost hours by total possible hours (employees × working days × 8) to get a percentage. Sanity-check the result (e.g., 10-20% loss).
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.