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Spent way too long second-guessing myself on how to count valid arithmetic progressions.
First, clarify that the three numbers must be distinct and drawn without replacement, so order doesn't matter. Then, count the total number of possible triples (C(30,3)) and the number of triples that form an arithmetic progression. Finally, compute the probability as the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes.
Pro tip: Mention that the common difference must be an integer and that the middle term determines the progression. This shows you understand the structure and can avoid double-counting.
Confirm that we are drawing 3 distinct numbers from 1 to 30 without replacement, and that any set of 3 numbers is equally likely. The order does not matter.
Calculate the total number of ways to choose 3 numbers from 30, which is C(30,3) = 4060.
Count the number of 3-element subsets that form an arithmetic progression. For a progression a, a+d, a+2d with d ≥ 1, the largest term a+2d ≤ 30. For each d from 1 to 14, count the number of valid a: a can be 1 to 30-2d, so there are 30-2d choices. Sum over d: Σ_{d=1}^{14} (30-2d) = 14*30 - 2*(14*15/2) = 420 - 210 = 210.
Divide the number of favorable outcomes (210) by the total number of outcomes (4060) to get the probability. Simplify the fraction if possible: 210/4060 = 21/406 = 3/58.
Double-check the count by considering alternative methods (e.g., fixing the middle term) to ensure no mistakes. Present the final answer clearly: 3/58 ≈ 0.0517.
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