I started with Super Bowl viewership, which felt solid ground, then immediately got tangled trying to estimate scan rates because I kept second-guessing myself on how many people actually have their phone out while watching.
Break the problem into a funnel: Super Bowl viewership → QR code scans → sign-up completions. Estimate each stage using reasonable assumptions and industry benchmarks, then multiply to get the total successful sign-ups. Sanity-check the final number against known metrics like Coinbase's user base and typical conversion rates.
Pro tip: Anchor your estimate with a known figure (e.g., Super Bowl viewership ~100M) and use round numbers to simplify calculations. Mention that the $15 coupon may attract low-quality users, so consider adjusting for drop-off after sign-up.
Start with the total U.S. TV audience for the Super Bowl (e.g., ~100 million viewers). Consider that not all viewers are potential crypto users, but for simplicity, assume all are exposed to the ad.
Determine what percentage of viewers would scan a QR code during a live event. Use benchmarks from similar campaigns (e.g., 0.1%–1%) and adjust for factors like ad creativity, audience interest, and mobile accessibility.
Not everyone who scans completes the sign-up process. Assume a conversion rate from scan to completed sign-up (e.g., 10%–30%) based on typical mobile conversion funnels and the incentive of a $15 coupon.
Multiply the estimates: viewership × scan rate × sign-up completion rate. For example, 100M × 0.5% × 20% = 100,000 sign-ups.
Compare the result to Coinbase's existing user base and typical campaign performance. Adjust assumptions if the number seems too high or low, and consider additional factors like international viewers or time zone effects.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.