← Jane Street Interview Insights
I stared at this longer than I'd like to admit.
Break the problem into cases based on your first roll: if you roll 1-3, you lose immediately; if you roll 5 or 6, you win immediately; if you roll 4, you enter a symmetric tie with the two friends. For the tie case, use symmetry to determine your probability of eventually winning, then combine all cases using the law of total probability.
Pro tip: When explaining, emphasize the symmetry argument: in a three-way tie, each player has an equal chance to win, so your probability is 1/3. This shows you can simplify complex recursive problems elegantly.
List the possible results of your first roll and their immediate consequences: rolling 1, 2, or 3 means you lose; rolling 5 or 6 means you win; rolling 4 leads to a tie.
Since the die is fair, each outcome has probability 1/6. So P(lose immediately) = 3/6 = 1/2, P(win immediately) = 2/6 = 1/3, and P(tie) = 1/6.
If you roll a 4, all three players are tied. By symmetry, each player has an equal chance to eventually win, so your probability of winning from the tie is 1/3.
Compute overall win probability: P(win) = P(win immediately) + P(tie) * P(win | tie) = 1/3 + (1/6)*(1/3) = 1/3 + 1/18 = 7/18.
Check that the result is reasonable (between 1/3 and 1/2) and clearly state the final probability as 7/18.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.