Start by using the given metrics to justify a block length that balances spillover mitigation and statistical power, then outline a step-by-step plan covering block length selection, carryover detection, variance and sample size calculation, randomization strategy, and covariate adjustment. Emphasize the importance of accounting for time-of-day and day-of-week patterns to ensure valid inference.
Pro tip: In switchback experiments, always pre-specify the block length and carryover detection method to avoid p-hacking; use a washout period if carryover is significant, and leverage covariate adjustment with pre-period data to boost power.
Select a block length longer than the autocorrelation decay time (e.g., 75 minutes) to minimize spillover, but short enough to capture demand variations. Given peaks every 4 hours, consider blocks of 1-2 hours, ensuring at least one full cycle per block.
After the experiment, test for carryover by comparing outcomes in the first part of a block to later parts, or by including lagged treatment indicators in a regression. If significant, increase block length or add washout periods.
Under block randomization, the variance of the treatment effect estimator depends on between-block and within-block variance. Use the intraclass correlation (ICC) to adjust sample size; with strong autocorrelation, more blocks are needed. Calculate required number of blocks using standard formulas for cluster randomized trials.
Stratify randomization by time-of-day (e.g., morning, afternoon, evening, night) and day-of-week (weekday vs. weekend) to ensure balance. Within each stratum, randomly assign treatment to blocks, ensuring each block gets both conditions if using a crossover design.
Use pre-experiment covariates (e.g., historical demand, weather, events) in a regression model to reduce variance. Include time fixed effects and block-level random effects to account for clustering.
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