You have to resist the urge to just throw out a number.
Start by clarifying the scope (e.g., global revenue, annual, including all business lines) and then structure your estimate using a demand-side approach: estimate the number of rides and average revenue per ride. Alternatively, use a supply-side approach by estimating active drivers and their average earnings, then apply Lyft's take rate. State your assumptions clearly and sanity-check the final number.
Pro tip: Show product sense by segmenting riders (e.g., casual vs. commuter) and rides (e.g., standard vs. shared vs. luxury) to reflect Lyft's actual product mix, and mention that revenue includes commissions and fees, not gross bookings.
Confirm whether the estimate is for annual global revenue, and specify that revenue is net of driver earnings (i.e., Lyft's cut plus fees).
Decide between demand-side (riders × rides per rider × average fare × take rate) or supply-side (drivers × earnings per driver × take rate). Pick one and justify it.
Use known data (e.g., US population, smartphone penetration, Lyft's market share) to estimate the number of riders or drivers, and then estimate frequency or earnings per driver.
Multiply the inputs to get total revenue, then compare to known benchmarks (e.g., Lyft's actual revenue is around $4B) to validate your assumptions.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.