The two-surface setup is what makes this question interesting and also what tripped me up at first.
Start by clarifying the metrics and time frame, then segment the data to identify whether the decline is broad or concentrated. Form hypotheses around user behavior, product changes, and external factors, and validate them with data and qualitative research.
Pro tip: Always distinguish between correlation and causation; the two trends might be unrelated, so check for a common driver or coincidental timing before assuming a causal link.
Define what 'AI usage in DMs' and 'Discover page search bar usage' mean precisely, including time frame, user segments, and whether the decline is absolute or relative.
Break down the data by user demographics, geography, device, and behavior to see if the decline is uniform or concentrated in specific groups.
Generate possible explanations such as product changes, UI updates, algorithm shifts, seasonality, or competitive actions, and rank them by likelihood and impact.
Use A/B tests, funnel analysis, user surveys, and interviews to confirm or refute each hypothesis, looking for causal evidence.
Summarize root causes and propose next steps, such as product improvements, further investigation, or monitoring.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.