Start by clarifying the scope of micromobility (e.g., shared bikes, e-scooters, e-bikes) and then use a top-down approach: estimate the total addressable market based on urban population, trip frequency, and average spend per trip. Alternatively, use a bottom-up approach by estimating the number of vehicles, utilization rates, and revenue per vehicle. Choose one method and clearly state assumptions.
Pro tip: Show awareness of key drivers like urbanization, population density, and regulatory environment, and segment the market by use cases (commuting, leisure) to demonstrate product thinking. Also, mention that the market is still evolving and estimates can vary widely, so it's important to triangulate with multiple sources.
Clarify what 'micromobility' includes: shared e-scooters, e-bikes, and pedal bikes. Exclude personal ownership unless specified. Focus on shared services as that's Lime's core business.
Decide between top-down (population-based) or bottom-up (vehicle-based). For a PM interview, top-down is often simpler: estimate urban population, adoption rate, trips per user, and average revenue per trip.
Break down the US population into urban vs. rural, then estimate the percentage of urban residents who might use micromobility. Consider age, income, and availability of alternatives. Estimate average trips per user per year and average spend per trip.
Multiply the variables to get a total market size. Sanity-check by comparing to known figures (e.g., Lime's revenue, industry reports) and adjust assumptions if needed.
Acknowledge that the estimate is rough and depends on assumptions. Discuss how the market might grow and what factors (e.g., regulation, competition) could impact it. Tie back to product strategy.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.