I started with US store count since that's where most of their revenue comes from anyway.
Break down the problem into a bottom-up estimation: start with the number of Chipotle locations globally, estimate average daily transactions per store, and multiply by average order value to get annual revenue. Alternatively, use a top-down approach by estimating Chipotle's market share in the fast-casual Mexican segment, but bottom-up is more intuitive for a company-specific estimate.
Pro tip: Show your work and state assumptions clearly; the interviewer cares more about your structured thinking than the exact number. Also, sanity-check your final estimate against known figures (e.g., Chipotle's 2023 revenue was ~$9.9B) to demonstrate business acumen.
Confirm whether the estimate is for global revenue, including all company-owned and licensed stores, and whether it's for a specific year. State that you'll assume the most recent full year and include all locations.
Break down by region: US, Canada, Europe, and other international markets. Use known approximate counts (e.g., ~3,200 US, ~50 Canada, ~50 Europe) or estimate based on population and market penetration.
Consider store hours, peak times, and throughput. For example, assume 10 transactions per hour during 12 peak hours, plus 5 per hour during 4 off-peak hours, totaling ~140 transactions per day.
Use a reasonable AOV for fast-casual dining, such as $10-$12 per transaction. Multiply by daily transactions to get daily revenue per store.
Multiply daily revenue per store by number of stores and by 365 days. Sum across regions if using different assumptions. Sanity-check against known public data.
AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.