Cermati.com·Product Manager·Onsite - Product Sense / Strategy·Intermediate

Intermediate

Apr 2026Indonesia

Summary

One question, market sizing, for a fintech role at Cermati.com. Not a lot to go on but it was the kind of question where you either have a framework in your head or you're just guessing out loud.

Questions Asked (1)

Estimate the total addressable market for mobile app-based loans targeting small and medium businesses in Indonesia in 2019.

Product StrategyProduct Analytics & MetricsGo-to-Market (GTM)

Author's notes

Market sizing for SMB lending in Indonesia is actually pretty meaty if you think about it carefully.

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AI HintsAI Generated

Suggested Approach

Start by clarifying the scope: mobile app-based loans for SMEs in Indonesia in 2019. Then use a top-down approach: estimate the number of SMEs in Indonesia, filter for those with mobile access and credit demand, and multiply by average loan size to get the total addressable market. Alternatively, use a bottom-up approach by estimating the number of potential borrowers and their average loan needs.

Pro tip: Show awareness of the Indonesian context: high mobile penetration but low financial inclusion, and the prevalence of informal SMEs. Also, mention that TAM is not just about loan volume but also about revenue potential (interest and fees).

1. Clarify the question

Confirm the definition of SMEs (e.g., based on annual revenue or employee count), the product (mobile app-based loans), and the year (2019). Ask if TAM should be in terms of loan volume or revenue.

2. Estimate the number of SMEs in Indonesia

Use known data: Indonesia had about 60 million SMEs in 2019, contributing ~60% of GDP. However, not all are addressable due to lack of mobile access or creditworthiness.

3. Filter for mobile app-based loan eligibility

Consider factors: smartphone penetration among SMEs (maybe 40-50%), willingness to borrow via mobile (maybe 20-30%), and creditworthy (maybe 50%). This gives a serviceable addressable market (SAM).

4. Estimate average loan size and frequency

Research typical SME loan sizes in Indonesia: micro loans might be IDR 5-50 million, small loans IDR 50-500 million. Assume average loan size and annual borrowing frequency (e.g., 1-2 times per year).

5. Calculate TAM

Multiply the number of eligible SMEs by average loan size and frequency to get total loan volume. Optionally, multiply by average interest rate to get revenue-based TAM.

Key Points to Mention

Number of SMEs in Indonesia (~60 million) and their contribution to GDP.
Mobile and smartphone penetration rates in Indonesia (e.g., ~60% smartphone penetration in 2019).
Financial inclusion and credit gap for SMEs in Indonesia.
Average loan size for SMEs (micro, small, medium segments).
Regulatory environment (OJK regulations on P2P lending).
Competitive landscape (existing fintech players like Kredivo, UangTeman, etc.).

AI-generated suggestions, not part of the candidate's original notes. May be inaccurate — verify before relying on them.